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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.